CAMPAIGN POLLS

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You'll find all polls posted here.

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McGee v. Metcalfe, Connecticut Governor
Pre-Campaign Poll



In an already heavily-lean Democratic seat, Metcalfe is taking a beating because of some of his staunchly conservative opinions. While both men are doing well in getting their bases out, two main points are dragging down Metcalfe's poll numbers: independents are heavily in favor of McGee and GOP turnout, with an already smaller group of votes to get out, is lower than Democratic turnout.

To put it plainly, voters see Metcalfe as too conservative. His support for vouchers for private schools is getting bad press in liberal Connecticut and, while he is outflanking McGee on abortion, voters are naturally biased toward the Democrat. McGee is down and out for the count on issues like immigration and crime, where voters prefer the right-leaning stances of Metcalfe. But issues like education, where McGee has a 91% to 9% lead, and gun control, where there is a fifty point deficit for Metcalfe, are overtaking whatever chance he'll have to steal this race away.

Unfortunately, staunchly conservative (or liberal) positions are hard to back away from without a campaign gaffe. If Metcalfe can reverse the view of his positions, he might be able to make up some ground. If not, then McGee will steal the rest of the undecided voters and Metcalfe will go home without a victory.

Effects:
+5 to McGee campaign energy

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McGee v. Metcalfe, Connecticut Governor
Week 1 Campaign Poll



An atrocious week of campaigning by McGee followed up by a great week of campaigning by Metcalfe has people forgetting that the latter is a conservative Republican. Right out of the gate, Metcalfe went out to impress voters and it showed in the polls. Two of the only issues Metcalfe is polling higher than McGee on had their visibility raised and McGee's strong issues - such as abortion and Seniors - took hits in the importance ratings. Generally speaking, Metcalfe took a competitive edge. The key for this week: Metcalfe stole some of his base back and put leaning-DNC undecideds into his column for now. Although the +1% bump doesn't reflect it, some voters are still willing to wait and see.

Metcalfe's Week 1 assault on McGee's crime position was key to this statstical victory. McGee is way behind on the crime issue anyway, and Metcalfe did a good job of exploiting it. While both fell into the trap of energizing campaign workers that are already energized, Metcalfe seemed to avoid the kind of slump it put McGee in. Why he chose to sleep for two days is beyond me. Because of this, turnout overall is up among Republicans and Independents but down among Democrats.

Right now, this is still a strong DNC safe seat. It will take alot more than just a bad week of campaigning to bring McGee down and make this race competitive. McGee still holds a +16% advantage, but that is down from +23% before the campaign started. With random events coming and 22% undecided, though, this one could get interesting.

Effects:
-5 McGee campaign energy
+10 Metcalfe campaign energy

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McGee v. Metcalfe, Connecticut Governor
Week 2 Campaign Poll



McGee recovered just enough to stop the bleeding for now and bring some of the independents back to his side. But the bad first week is still taking its toll and, overall, the Democrat lost another four net points to his challenger - who was down 23 at the beginning of the race. McGee is now dangerously below the 46% mark and is losing the bipartisan appeal that he once had as a candidate. The GOP base has forgotten him completely and the DNC is not getting anymore excited, meanwhile Metcalfe has risen his base support dramatically and picked up a few DNC voters along the way. Turnout was up across the board due to both candidates performing well.

Crime is now the no. 1 issue in the race, but serious questions have been raised about why Metcalfe refuses to talk about other issues. The media is starting to delve into what he is leaving out and it might not be long before they find some answers. The random event win really helped Metcalfe cement a statistical advantage over McGee for the week. Metcalfe has reversed some of the poll numbers on education and abortion, but has sunk on healthcare, poverty and the environment. These might need to be corrected near the end of the race. Overall, Metcalfe now leads on three issues, only one of them being currently important to the race.

This seat is getting more and more competitive. The sense in the McGee campaign is that they are falling on their faces and can't get up. A good week wasn't good enough to stop the poll slide and the state Democratic Party is starting to worry. They are dumping human resources into the race. Could that kind of panic be useful?

Effects:
+5 McGee campaign organization
+5 Metcalfe campaign energy

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McGee v. Metcalfe, Connecticut Governor
Week 3 Campaign Poll



Metcalfe closed within ten points, considering the margin of error, mostly because his campaign skills and energy powered him through a somewhat subpar week of campaigning. McGee had a pretty good week of campaigning but is enough behind Metcalfe in campaign organization and skill to make it hard to get control over the media narrative. Two things are unmistakeable in this new poll. Metcalfe has shored up his base considerably; at the beginning of the campaign, McGee owned almost a fifth of the Republican voters in the state... now, practically none support him. The second thing is that Metcalfe is falling behind on alot of very important issues.

With the way this campaign is going, there is little doubt that the wind could blow in a direction that makes this extreamly close but there is also significant evidence that this was the last week to make a difference and it wasn't done. Metcalfe has less than ten percent on two crucial issues - the environment and education. He is at or under a quarter on abortion, civil rights and poverty. Metcalfe's best hope in this race is to pick up independents and Week 4 is going to have to be an indy drive like hell in order to get the support he needs. The bases are solid for either candidate, and they won't change up. Essentially, Metcalfe needs a net twenty point increase among independents to pull ahead in the poll. But weirder things have happened.

The competitiveness of this seat was somewhat stunted this week, primarily because McGee was able to get some of the support back that he lost during the first two weeks of enemic campaigning. But with the GOP turnout meter rising, DNC turnout meter declining and a full 10-13% of each demographic still up for grabs, this race isn't over yet.

Effects:
+5 McGee campaign energy
+5 Metcalfe campaign energy