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Pages: (2) [1] 2  ( Go to first unread post ) U-Sector Supporters of Toronto FC, USector, U Sector, MLS, Soccer, Football, Fansalt='U-SectorU-Sector Supporters of Toronto FC, USector, U Sector, MLS, Soccer, Football, Fans

U-Sector Supporters of Toronto FC, USector, U Sector, MLS, Soccer, Football, Fans Our next five league games:
BHTC Mike
Posted: Apr 15 2012, 06:52 PM
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v. Chicago, Apr. 21
@ RSL, Apr. 28
v. DC United, May 5
@ DC United, May 19
v. Philly, May 26

Both legs of the V-Cup semifinal are wedged in there too. After that we have a massive three week break until our next league game in KC on June 16th. The V-Cup - barring another intervention by the gods - will be wrapped up by May 23rd.

So, forget about our 0-0-5 start; forget about our CCL success. In a normal year making the playoffs takes about a 1.33 PPG pace. That's between six or seven points over the next five games to stay on pace. Considering that three of those games are at home let's call it 7. A minimum of two wins and one draw or one win and four draws will earn those points.

Of our opponents only one of those teams is in the top half of the table overall (though DC sits balanced exactly in the middle).

Torsten Frings will be back and should be close to full health. Adrian Cann is back. No Dicoy Williams (but I was never convinced by him) or Frei (but you can only play one keeper anyways).

If, after more than a season in charge, after completely gutting the roster and rebuilding it to suit his system, after bringing in two new designated players, TFC can't keep a playoff pace over those five games would it be time to part ways with Mr. Winter and bring someone else in?

If hired reasonably quickly they could have over two weeks to work with the team and prepare them for KC. They'd have the summer transfer window to use what limited resources we have left to start reshaping the squad. They'd have a full off season to prepare for next year after seeing the team for two thirds of the season.

Supplementary: if Winter goes would it be wise to stick with the program and hire someone committed to the 4-3-3 or should we just pick the best available candidate?

Full disclosure: I never liked the decision to hire Klinnsman and thought the project has been overambitious since the beginning. Winter was a choice that surprised me but, for obvious reasons, I didn't have much of an opinion about him either way. I'm less confident now than I have been at any point but I'm not even sure how I'd answer either of the above questions. My belief in the need for some sense of stability always precluded the idea of MLSE admitting they made a poor hire (if that is the case). I'm legimitately interested in seeing what other people think.

And let's be clear: this is all just internet chatter! We're not the ones making the decision and aren't going to have input. No one is threatening protests or talking about turning their back on the team.

But if you were the one who could make the call what would you be thinking about?
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Free kick
Posted: Apr 15 2012, 08:31 PM
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I agree that another panic coaching change is the last thing that we need right now. Problem with hiring new coaches in soccer is that they always tear it all up and start over with their own choice of players. Thats not a big deal if you have big budget to spend. But in mls it just means that you end spinning your wheels in quick sand because everyone is playing with same amount of house money.

I dont think that it takes much as far as personel changes to turn things around in MLS. So we need improvements by building on whats already in place. We dont need another rebuild. But what is clear, is that whats in place right has gotten us last place in league with 5 losses in 5 games in what shuld have been a fairly easy sched to start the season off.

This post has been edited by Free kick on Apr 15 2012, 08:34 PM
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gator
Posted: Apr 15 2012, 09:05 PM
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Things can change around quickly in football, a couple of good results and the pressure on everyone lessens! There are some winnable matches coming up, it's all there to play for! The team should be stronger with the return of Cann and Frings, I seriously think our lack of depth has been a factor in this fixture laden beginning of the season! We've seen how this team can play under Winter at times, just not often enough, I don't want to see him fired at this point! Let's hope we get some results in that 5 game stretch or things will be getting real ugly on msg boards and in the stands!
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nfitz
Posted: Apr 15 2012, 09:16 PM
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Quite frankly, neither of the MLS games I've seen here in Toronto really looked that bad (I missed San Jose). Sure, some inconsistencies, and a few mistakes, but generally the team looked like they could play football, at least for some of the game. Certainly we don't have the depth there, that is clear. But there is hope.

I don't expect to stay at the bottom of the league all season. And I hope see some moves to strengthen the line-up over the next year or two.
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dbailey62
Posted: Apr 15 2012, 09:23 PM
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Luis Rancagua


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QUOTE (BHTC Mike @ Apr 15 2012, 06:52 PM)

If, after more than a season in charge, after completely gutting the roster and rebuilding it to suit his system, after bringing in two new designated players, TFC can't keep a playoff pace over those five games would it be time to part ways with Mr. Winter and bring someone else in?

If hired reasonably quickly they could have over two weeks to work with the team and prepare them for KC. They'd have the summer transfer window to use what limited resources we have left to start reshaping the squad. They'd have a full off season to prepare for next year after seeing the team for two thirds of the season.

Supplementary: if Winter goes would it be wise to stick with the program and hire someone committed to the 4-3-3 or should we just pick the best available candidate?

I believe Rongen may have been brought in to be a readily available coaching candidate (even if just interim) if and when AW should be sacked. He has MLS experience albeit not recently.

Alternatively, we have Paul Mariner in the wings. He spent years as an assistant to Steve Nicol and he would probably love to make the jump.

Additionally alternatively, Mariner is great friends with Steve Nicol. He is not outside the realm of possibilities.

Do I like any of these possibilities? Not really. That said, your scenario is a logical one. Keep AW in place, give him a chance, if things do not improve, the long break would be a logical time to make a move.

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dbailey62
Posted: Apr 15 2012, 09:28 PM
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Luis Rancagua


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QUOTE (nfitz @ Apr 15 2012, 09:16 PM)
Quite frankly, neither of the MLS games I've seen here in Toronto really looked that bad (I missed San Jose). Sure, some inconsistencies, and a few mistakes, but generally the team looked like they could play football, at least for some of the game. Certainly we don't have the depth there, that is clear. But there is hope.

I don't expect to stay at the bottom of the league all season. And I hope see some moves to strengthen the line-up over the next year or two.

I agree with you particularly about this last match that with even just a small amount of good luck, we have a draw and truthfully, this should have been a win.

Cann and Dunfield were both good yesterday. The back four were reasonably solid and I'm hoping that perhaps this gives us the opportunity to play Frings as he should be played.
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gator
Posted: Apr 15 2012, 09:55 PM
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QUOTE (dbailey62 @ Apr 15 2012, 09:28 PM)
QUOTE (nfitz @ Apr 15 2012, 09:16 PM)
Quite frankly, neither of the MLS games I've seen here in Toronto really looked that bad (I missed San Jose). Sure, some inconsistencies, and a few mistakes, but generally the team looked like they could play football, at least for some of the game. Certainly we don't have the depth there, that is clear. But there is hope.

I don't expect to stay at the bottom of the league all season. And I hope see some moves to strengthen the line-up over the next year or two.

I agree with you particularly about this last match that with even just a small amount of good luck, we have a draw and truthfully, this should have been a win.

Cann and Dunfield were both good yesterday. The back four were reasonably solid and I'm hoping that perhaps this gives us the opportunity to play Frings as he should be played.

It would be great if Frings can play as a midfielder most of the time because he just gives us that many more options around the park! In the Columbus and Chivas matches the midfield were creating enough chances to win the match without Frings however, it's all about finishing those chances!

This post has been edited by gator on Apr 15 2012, 10:06 PM
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ThisIsAnfield
Posted: Apr 16 2012, 07:24 AM
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For me it'll be interesting to see what happens over these next 3 games in particular because if we fail to win any of them, we'll be on our very worst run in club history.

0-6-3 is our league form right now. Between 07/07-09/07 remember how dark those times were?) we went 0-8-4, the 5th worst winless streak in league history. (We're tied for the 8th worst winless streak in league history right now as is, for anyone wondering.)

The reason I find this interesting is because back then, under Mo, no one plead for patience or thought we were getting things right whereas this time around the mood and tone is much more optimistic.

As a Liverpool supporter I'm no stranger to the "if my auntie had balls she'd be my uncle" argument, but it's nice seeing it enjoying a renaissance of sorts amongst my fellow TFC supporters. :)
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Free kick
Posted: Apr 16 2012, 08:26 AM
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QUOTE (ThisIsAnfield @ Apr 16 2012, 07:24 AM)
The reason I find this interesting is because back then, under Mo, no one plead for patience or thought we were getting things right whereas this time around the mood and tone is much more optimistic.


That is interesting. Because in that first year i would not have been categorized as one of those who lacked patience. But yes, that rush to judgement on Mo Johnson is, in part, what precipitated that revolving door environment whereby players would come in, play 1-3 games and then get released. Unfortunately, that panic and "win now" culture that existed in 2007 is at the very root of the problems we have had in regards to not making the play offs. Namely, a lack of stability and no true team building plan.

We had players like Marco Reda who played in the first ever TFC game in LA against Chivas. Reda didn't have a great game, but he was released shortly after that one game. Talk about impatience! one game and your out. And yet, we have seen far worst matches from other centre back over the years to follow(ie.: Garcia, Iro etc). You could make a similar case for Adam Braz, though he did stick around for the full year. I didnt think that Adam Braz was as bad as some would make them out to be. Neither would have been great MLS players, but if you want someone to hold the fort until you find/draft a proper replacement, these guys would have been adequate for one year. Moreseo given that the first season is bound to be a write off anyways.

Then we had players like edson Buddle, who did turn out to be a good players.
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Furpo
Posted: Apr 16 2012, 08:37 AM
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QUOTE (BHTC Mike @ Apr 15 2012, 06:52 PM)
v. Chicago, Apr. 21
@ RSL, Apr. 28
v. DC United, May 5
@ DC United, May 19
v. Philly, May 26

Both legs of the V-Cup semifinal are wedged in there too. After that we have a massive three week break until our next league game in KC on June 16th. The V-Cup - barring another intervention by the gods - will be wrapped up by May 23rd.

So, forget about our 0-0-5 start; forget about our CCL success. In a normal year making the playoffs takes about a 1.33 PPG pace. That's between six or seven points over the next five games to stay on pace. Considering that three of those games are at home let's call it 7. A minimum of two wins and one draw or one win and four draws will earn those points.

I'm not sure it makes sense to forget about the 0-5 start. That is, averaging 1.33 points over the next five games doesn't get us back on pace. To hit your average of 1.33 ppg for the season we need to get 45 points in total (is that enough?) or over 1.5 ppg for the rest of the season. So we need 8 points over the next 5 games to be on track (plus whatever the home game adjustment is).

The reason we might be able to do it is that it is not overall poor play that has kept us out of the running, it is a combination of individual defensive mistakes and narrow misses at the other end. Yes, there is more optimism--and it is based soundly on the quality of play. Winter should certainly see out the season.
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dbailey62
Posted: Apr 16 2012, 10:03 AM
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Luis Rancagua


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QUOTE (Free kick @ Apr 16 2012, 08:26 AM)
QUOTE (ThisIsAnfield @ Apr 16 2012, 07:24 AM)
The reason I find this interesting is because back then, under Mo, no one plead for patience or thought we were getting things right whereas this time around the mood and tone is much more optimistic.


That is interesting. Because in that first year i would not have been categorized as one of those who lacked patience. But yes, that rush to judgement on Mo Johnson is, in part, what precipitated that revolving door environment whereby players would come in, play 1-3 games and then get released. Unfortunately, that panic and "win now" culture that existed in 2007 is at the very root of the problems we have had in regards to not making the play offs. Namely, a lack of stability and no true team building plan.

We had players like Marco Reda who played in the first ever TFC game in LA against Chivas. Reda didn't have a great game, but he was released shortly after that one game. Talk about impatience! one game and your out. And yet, we have seen far worst matches from other centre back over the years to follow(ie.: Garcia, Iro etc). You could make a similar case for Adam Braz, though he did stick around for the full year. I didnt think that Adam Braz was as bad as some would make them out to be. Neither would have been great MLS players, but if you want someone to hold the fort until you find/draft a proper replacement, these guys would have been adequate for one year. Moreseo given that the first season is bound to be a write off anyways.

Then we had players like edson Buddle, who did turn out to be a good players.

Tony, Tony, Tony. ;)

Marco Reda was with the team for the whole season. Granted he made only eight appearances with the club but he wasn't released until November.
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Ultra & Proud
Posted: Apr 16 2012, 10:34 AM
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The way I see it we had better come out of this with 7 points minimum but hopefully 10 or 12.

v. Chicago, Apr. 21 (W)
@ RSL, Apr. 28 (L)
v. DC United, May 5 (W)
@ DC United, May 19 (D)
v. Philly, May 26 (W)


Anything less than 7 and I think we may be in for a long second half of the season filled with ML$E rants and town halls galore.

And play minimal proper starters against Montreal in the CC. No need to get any more nagging injuries or get players gassed this early in the season. Time to put the focus back on league play.

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BHTC Mike
Posted: Apr 16 2012, 06:13 PM
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QUOTE (Furpo @ Apr 16 2012, 09:37 AM)
I'm not sure it makes sense to forget about the 0-5 start. That is, averaging 1.33 points over the next five games doesn't get us back on pace. To hit your average of 1.33 ppg for the season we need to get 45 points in total (is that enough?) or over 1.5 ppg for the rest of the season. So we need 8 points over the next 5 games to be on track (plus whatever the home game adjustment is).

Sorry, I'm not suggesting that 7 points over the next five games would get us back on a playoff pace for the year. Realistically, it'd probably leave us right where we are: six points back. It'd be a reasonable step forward though and would stop the whole year from being a waste. Keep earning points at a regular playoff pace for the rest of the year, with no dips in form, and all it will take is one run of above average form to be right back in it.

What I'm suggesting is that it's not unreasonable to benchmark Winter against a playoff pace just for those five games.

No CCL. Frings back. Mostly mediocre opposition. This isn't a particularly high bar. It's what we'd need to do, in a regular year, over an entire season to meet the minimum threshold of success that qualifying for the playoffs.

The really hard decision will be if we only get 6 points over the next five games. Any less than that and it's hard to see Winter surviving. One win in your first 10 games of your second season in a league designed for parity is absolutely shocking. But if we get a win and a three draws? Or two wins? Tricky. Still not good enough to make the playoffs even ignoring the pointless start. Enough to get you fired when you're the figurehead of a long term organizational overhaul though? Maybe not.
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Soldeed
Posted: Apr 16 2012, 07:03 PM
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QUOTE (BHTC Mike @ Apr 16 2012, 07:13 PM)
QUOTE (Furpo @ Apr 16 2012, 09:37 AM)
I'm not sure it makes sense to forget about the 0-5 start. That is, averaging 1.33 points over the next five games doesn't get us back on pace. To hit your average of 1.33 ppg for the season we need to get 45 points in total (is that enough?) or over 1.5 ppg for the rest of the season. So we need 8 points over the next 5 games to be on track (plus whatever the home game adjustment is).

Sorry, I'm not suggesting that 7 points over the next five games would get us back on a playoff pace for the year. Realistically, it'd probably leave us right where we are: six points back. It'd be a reasonable step forward though and would stop the whole year from being a waste. Keep earning points at a regular playoff pace for the rest of the year, with no dips in form, and all it will take is one run of above average form to be right back in it.

What I'm suggesting is that it's not unreasonable to benchmark Winter against a playoff pace just for those five games.

No CCL. Frings back. Mostly mediocre opposition. This isn't a particularly high bar. It's what we'd need to do, in a regular year, over an entire season to meet the minimum threshold of success that qualifying for the playoffs.

The really hard decision will be if we only get 6 points over the next five games. Any less than that and it's hard to see Winter surviving. One win in your first 10 games of your second season in a league designed for parity is absolutely shocking. But if we get a win and a three draws? Or two wins? Tricky. Still not good enough to make the playoffs even ignoring the pointless start. Enough to get you fired when you're the figurehead of a long term organizational overhaul though? Maybe not.

We all know that this team is better than their 0-5 record and is under-performing. My first question is just how much do we think are they under-performing. Are we an under-performing good team or an under-performing mediocre team? Is the team that started 2012 better than the team that finished 2011?

The team the played from July-October last season was better than the team that played from March-July but even then that team extrapolated over an entire season would not have been good enough to make the play-offs. I've seen it said here and there that we had a strong finish in 2011. I don't think we did finish that strongly, it was just better than our poor start.

To make the play-offs this year we already needed to be better than we were in the last three months of last season. After this start we'll need to be even better than that.
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rpearce76
Posted: Apr 17 2012, 07:40 AM
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QUOTE (BHTC Mike @ Apr 16 2012, 07:13 PM)
QUOTE (Furpo @ Apr 16 2012, 09:37 AM)
I'm not sure it makes sense to forget about the 0-5 start. That is, averaging 1.33 points over the next five games doesn't get us back on pace. To hit your average of 1.33 ppg for the season we need to get 45 points in total (is that enough?) or over 1.5 ppg for the rest of the season. So we need 8 points over the next 5 games to be on track (plus whatever the home game adjustment is).

Sorry, I'm not suggesting that 7 points over the next five games would get us back on a playoff pace for the year. Realistically, it'd probably leave us right where we are: six points back. It'd be a reasonable step forward though and would stop the whole year from being a waste. Keep earning points at a regular playoff pace for the rest of the year, with no dips in form, and all it will take is one run of above average form to be right back in it.

What I'm suggesting is that it's not unreasonable to benchmark Winter against a playoff pace just for those five games.

No CCL. Frings back. Mostly mediocre opposition. This isn't a particularly high bar. It's what we'd need to do, in a regular year, over an entire season to meet the minimum threshold of success that qualifying for the playoffs.

The really hard decision will be if we only get 6 points over the next five games. Any less than that and it's hard to see Winter surviving. One win in your first 10 games of your second season in a league designed for parity is absolutely shocking. But if we get a win and a three draws? Or two wins? Tricky. Still not good enough to make the playoffs even ignoring the pointless start. Enough to get you fired when you're the figurehead of a long term organizational overhaul though? Maybe not.

This right here is the dilemma. It's kind of hard to blame anything last year on Winter since he was brought on too late in the process to really evaluate everyone, etc. Last year was a free pass learning curve kinda year.

This year he SHOULD have at least the core of what he wanted going forward. Most of the players are guys he chose to run with. If he's complaining about personnel that is kind of a knock on himself at this point. BUT, how long should fans/FO expect a rebuild like this to take? This season is probably also too soon to expect to be great team. 1 win and 1 draw and we probably wouldn't even be considering it. Like it or not he's now shouldering the weight of all the previous disappointment.

If we dumped him this year we could look forward to basically 2 more years of exactly the same thing unless we brought in another guy with a similar system who rated players in a similar way...
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