2012 MLB Season Thread

So Spring Training has begun and a new season is coming upon us shortly. I guess we'll get started by posting some predictions.

To start, I have no delusions about the Os this year. They DO have better depth, and I think if EVERYTHING breaks right, the Os CAN win 85-88 games. But that would take Zach Britton and Brian Matusz finally breaking out, Nick Markakis finally living up to his billing, Mark Reynolds playing competent defense, and no injuries. Oh yeah, and for Hammel to replace Jeremy Guthrie's production tit for tat. More likely, Hammel will be a downgrade from Gurthrie. I think Matusz and Britton will be OK, but neither will be great. Markakis will have a good, not great season, etc. I'm calling the Os to finish 71-91. Hopefully the new international pitchers will help too.

The Red Sox are my early pick to win the World Series, but it depends on whether they can mesh. There's no questioning the talent, but Valentine was a curious hire IMO. If it works, great. If not, they could flame out even worse than last year.

Oh yeah, and all this talk about the Nationals "emegence" will be smoke and mirrors. They'll finish with no more better than .500. They MAY break that mark in 2013 if Strasburg can recover and Bryce Harper can live up to billing.

I don't project Britton as being anything more than a mid-rotation type starter. Matusz can be a solid #2 or an ace on a bad team.

I'll be surprised if the Orioles top the 70 win mark. I'm thinking something along the lines of 65 wins or so. They aren't a BAD squad, but they aren't a good one either. Factor in the fact they play in a division with the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, and Jays and you have a team that will finish last again.

Tillman flopped, Britton is league average. They need pitching and need it desperately. Until then they'll continue to flounder around.

My pick to win the World Series is the New York Yankees. I hate them, but they have the best team. Pineda is a quality starter. While he may not produce the same lines as last year he should get more wins with the Yanks. Sabathia is an ace. Kuroda would be an ace for a decent amount of MLB teams. That's 3 aces on one staff. Plus you have Phil Hughes that should rebound into a very good #4 (#2 on most staffs) and Ivan Nova who would be a serviceable #3 for any team but is the Yankees #5.

The one weakness the Yankees have had in the past is their starting pitching. I don't understand why it took so long for them to realize this, but they finally did. I'll be in shock if the Yankees don't win the Series.

I believe the Rays will finish 2nd and win the Wild Card. I just feel that NYY and TB are head and shoulders above the Sox.

The difference could come down to Daniel Bard as a starter. He has been one of the best setup guys since being called up. If he can parlay that success into the rotation then the Sox have a chance.

This post has been edited by Astro on Feb 24 2012, 06:18 AM

I agree with this. Matusz has the potential to end up our ace this year and our opening day starter in 2013. However, unless he plays lights out, I expect him to actually start this season in Norfolk. I doubt he'll be there long though. Britton I think does have a ceiling as a #2 kinda guy, but I agree that he'll be a 3/4 kinda guy when it's all said and done. I also forgot about Arrieta who is another league average type, however, given his bulldog mentality, I could see him being the type that gives some random amazing season at some point in his career.

Tillman did flop. The Os need pitching. We'll see what Chen and Wada bring from the international market. Most of what I've seen has Chen being a league average guy and Wada being a legit backend starter or long reliever. The Os also got Dylan Bundy from this past year's draft who is already in most top 15s for overall prospects. Hopefully he can develop into a legit TOR starter. But in baseball, who the hell knows.

The good this year with the Os is that they are essentially rid of guys who have no business in the majors. The bad is that they have a lot of guys who "belong" but are league average or slightly below. On the team, only Markakis, Jones, Wieters, Hardy, and maybe Reynolds are better than league average. None of them are pitchers. The lineup is decent. My 71 win pick is based largely on the lineup continuing to play solid and the pitching to pick up slightly from last year. Hopefully Hammel doesn't completely suck. If we had Guthrie still, I probably would be thinking 73-75 wins though. In any other division, even with the current crop, I'd probably guess about 76-78 wins.

I do think there's about a 75% chance an AL East team wins the pennant. Probably about 50/50 that they win the World Series. It could be any of the top 3 IMO. And Toronto isn't half bad... but they're probably about smack dab in the middle talent-wise between the top 3 and the Orioles.

I feel comfortable right off the bat here saying that the Os won't be the worst team in the AL this year! WOOOO!!! I'm not moving from my 71 win needle yet, but the Twins look AWFUL. The lost 99 last year, they'll easily lose 100 this year.

Also, how often of late do we see the Os 3-0 and the Yankess AND Red Sox 0-3? I see the Yankees taking at least 2 of 3 this weekend in Camden Yards, That said, I'm not jumping to any conclusions yet, even should the Os sweep. Though I WILL say that maybe the Yankees aren't quite the team we would have thought they were if they get swept.

Still a couple weeks from legitimately being able to point out any surprises or anything, so I'll hold off on that.

The Twins are pretty bad.. really bad, actually.

While the Astros aren't going to be great, at least they are young and should improve. The Twins don't even have that working in their favor right now.

I do expect Liriano to bounce back from a terrible 2011 but the rest of the rotation is terrible. Pavano is a #4, at best, and he is their #1 or #2. Marquis should only be spot starting. The others are just league average on a good night.

Their lineup is lackluster and injury prone. Gardenhire will be fired after, if not before, the season ends but it isn't his fault when he has nothing to work with.

Gardenhire will be hired elsewhere... when he wants another gig. I certainly wouldnt mind him in Baltimore once Showalter's campaign runs its course in a couple years. The Twins are just in deep right now. They're overpaying for mediocre guys. Mauer is injury prone and expensive. Morneau will likely never be the same again, but he'll keep drawing all-star paychecks. The rest is and always was bleh. The rotation is like the Os... a bunch of mid/late rotation guys. I think the Twins win 50-55 games this year. They'll repeat that in 2013 too, but I'm assuming they will sell off a couple guys.

The 'Stros are above .500 for the first time since July 2009! We aren't getting too excited or anything, but it was nice to show signs of life early on, as opposed to last year's 0-9 start. Still gonna be a long season, but tickets will get dirt cheap and we should see some decent promotions.

They're still gonna be the Rangers' bitch come interleague B)




Speaking of the Rangers, time to watch Yu Darvish earn that money spent on his ass. I watched him at a spring training game, he definitely has a legit MLB and serious potential but he is still a little raw and needs to work on control with a few of his pitches.

5 2/3 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 5 K; 110 pitches (59 strikes)

Money well spent so far.

It's 1 game. Jury is definitely still out. I did't expect him to pitch shutouts right away anyways.


But thank God for the Texas hitters

That's why I think having 2 wild card teams is the right decision, even if they could have found a better way to go about it.

The Os are quickly falling back to earth. Two straight home losses to the Yanks. Today is about as big as a game 6 can be for the Os IMO. The Os go on a 10 game road trip next against Toronto, CWS, and the Angels. The Os will be fortunate to go 5-5 in that stretch. Given that tonight is Arrieta vs Sabathia, my hopes are not high. CC Sabathia, if I recall correctly, tends to have horrible opening games.... and amazing second games. Sabathia > Arrieta.

Thus far, REALLY early in the season, Detroit looks SCARY. Power, good pitching. They have a lot of things going for them. They still have 158 games to play (plus playoffs), but I have to imagine that they'll make a solid bid at the penant, given the expectations AND the current play. In about 2 or 3 weeks though, we'll start to have a much better idea though about which contenders really are contenders and which are just pretenders.

Hey Hokie, thought you'd enjoy this:

(Posted Image)

Looks like being an O's player (or fan) is pretty tough.

:lol:

Next season I expect a gun and/or noose to accompany him.

Ha Ha, I was getting ready to post the same image.

2010: YAY! I'm a big leaguer!
2011: I'm still in the big leagues! Maybe I'll do well and get traded.
2012: SHIT! Still an Oriole.

Hmm, things are looking decent for the Os. 5 games through a 10 game road trip, so far 4-1. So far 7-4 overall. Still not moving the 71 win needle, but I feel a LOT better about the possibility of that happening now. I doubt the pitching holds up. I doubt the home runs keep up. But we'll see. I think this is about as good of a start as an Os fan could have reasonably expected.

Houston's hot start as fizzled out. They have a decent future, but they have been bad since winning a couple games to start.

Obviously not time to panic in Miami, but Ozzie Guillen's comments plus Miami's 5-6 start doesn't have people feeling as warm and fuzzy about the Marlins star-studded roster. Again, still early, but something to watch over the next 10-15 games.

Orioles are playing well right now. However, it won't keep up. Their best pitcher is a #3 at best. None of them will come close to sustaining where they are now, especially Hunter.

They'll probably begin a slide here soon, possibly starting tonight with Peavy facing Hunter.

I agree that the pitchers won't sustain their luck. However, I read a stat (don't have it in front of me at work) where Hunter actually has the best ERA in MLB since 2008 or 2009 before July or August, so hopefully he can keep it up for a while longer at the least. I agree that Arrieta isn't an ace, but he is looking good and I think he has the ceiling to produce similar, if not slightly better, numbers than Guthrie did. As I mentioned earlier in the thread, with his bulldog/workmanlike mentality that he brings to the table, he's a great candidate to have a random year where he goes nuts and then falls back to earth the following year because his stuff really isn't all that.

But some of the younger hitters are coming together. Reimold has looked really good and had been good before going into a mental funk in 2010/2011. Jones has been really good. Wieters is starting to produce as well. And to produce more hope, Markakis is now actually in his annual early season funk (despite a 3 game tear to start the year). Hardy hasn't been to his 2011 form. So when some of the other guys come out of their highs, Markakis/Hardy could go into hot streaks.

As I mentioned, I'm not moving from my 71-91 call yet. I know the Os are going to win the AL East. But at least I can stay on my toes and have SOMETHING to grab onto to feel some kind of a sense of optimism.

Once the Rays, Sox, and even the Yankees get it together, the Os will falter though. Crazy though that even 11 games through that the standings read about the opposite of what they will at season's end.

So it's early, but there are some surprises and disappointments, as one would expect from any baseball season. Obviously a lot can change between now and October.... or even May.

Surprises:

Baltimore Orioles: Of course I'm going to mention the Os. They're 10-7 and they look pretty decent doing it. The pitching is holding up, and Britton hasn't pitched a game yet. I think they're this year's Indians, starting off pretty well for the first couple months before tailing back to what they were supposed to be and getting about 70-75 wins.

Washington Nationals: Most thought they were a year from greatness. I was skeptical about even that. At 13-4 and with probably the best rotation in baseball, maybe we were all wrong. They have the pitching. They have enough hitting. Still a bit early to truly put them in the contender department yet. But if they play like this for too much longer, it's going to be very hard to keep them out of that list.

New York Mets: OK, they're 9-8 and fading a little bit as expected. But this was expected to be the clear basement club of the NL East. So far, they haven't been. But there's plenty of time to sink.

Disappointments:

Boston Red Sox: It's early, but they also haven't looked as good as they were billed. The pitching has been... suspect. I'm not sure the bullpen is anything other than a few guys. At 6-10, they have plenty of time to prove me and other skeptics wrong, but I'm already jumping from my prediction of the Sox as World Series champs.

LA Angels: Pujols being ice cold isn't helping but 6-11 would indicate other issues. After this Tampa Bay road series, they have 14 very winnable games. They have 3 games at Cleveland, 3 hosting Minnesota, 4 hosting Toronto, and 3 at Minnesota. Split the next two against TB, and go 9-5 in that 11 game stretch and they already find themselves just under .500 but with plenty of momentum.

Miami: Still very early, but this was supposed to be a pretty good team. Not the basement of the NL East. Still, at 7-9, there's still a lot of time to right the ship. But maybe these guys aren't the potential playoff team many initially thought.

Philadelphia: 8-10? These guys are better than that. These guys should be contenders. They still are. But they need to get the momentum turned around. I'm sure they will and I don't think it's time to panic... yet.

That would be one heck of an accomplishment!