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US to attack Iran in Next 2 Months?

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STLCardinals

Posted: May 27 2008, 10:07 PM

u mad?

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QUOTE

NEW YORK - The George W Bush administration plans to launch an air strike against Iran within the next two months, an informed source tells Asia Times Online, echoing other reports that have surfaced in the media in the United States recently.

Two key US senators briefed on the attack planned to go public with their opposition to the move, according to the source, but their projected New York Times op-ed piece has yet to appear.

The source, a retired US career diplomat and former assistant secretary of state still active in the foreign affairs community, speaking anonymously, said last week that that the US plans an air strike against the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). The air strike would target the headquarters of the IRGC's elite Quds force. With an estimated strength of up to 90,000 fighters, the Quds' stated mission is to spread Iran's revolution of 1979 throughout the region.

Targets could include IRGC garrisons in southern and southwestern Iran, near the border with Iraq. US officials have repeatedly claimed Iran is aiding Iraqi insurgents. In January 2007, US forces raided the Iranian consulate general in Erbil, Iraq, arresting five staff members, including two Iranian diplomats it held until November. Last September, the US Senate approved a resolution by a vote of 76-22 urging President George W Bush to declare the IRGC a terrorist organization. Following this non-binding "sense of the senate" resolution, the White House declared sanctions against the Quds Force as a terrorist group in October. The Bush administration has also accused Iran of pursuing a nuclear weapons program, though most intelligence analysts say the program has been abandoned.
An attack on Iraq would fit the Bush administration's declared policy on Iraq. Administration officials questioned directly about military action against Iran routinely assert that "all options remain on the table".

Rockin' and a-reelin'
Senators and the Bush administration denied the resolution and terrorist declaration were preludes to an attack on Iran. However, attacking Iran rarely seems far from some American leaders' minds. Arizona senator and presumptive Republican presidential nominee John McCain recast the classic Beach Boys tune Barbara Ann as "Bomb Iran". Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton promised "total obliteration" for Iran if it attacked Israel.

The US and Iran have a long and troubled history, even without the proposed air strike. US and British intelligence were behind attempts to unseat prime minister Mohammed Mossadeq, who nationalized Britain's Anglo-Iranian Petroleum Company, and returned Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi to power in 1953. President Jimmy Carter's pressure on the Shah to improve his dismal human-rights record and loosen political control helped the 1979 Islamic revolution unseat the Shah.

But the new government under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini condemned the US as "the Great Satan" for its decades of support for the Shah and its reluctant admission into the US of the fallen monarch for cancer treatment. Students occupied the US Embassy in Teheran, holding 52 diplomats hostage for 444 days. Eight American commandos died in a failed rescue mission in 1980. The US broke diplomatic relations with Iran during the hostage holding and has yet to restore them. Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's rhetoric often sounds lifted from the Khomeini era.

The source said the White House views the proposed air strike as a limited action to punish Iran for its involvement in Iraq. The source, an ambassador during the administration of president H W Bush, did not provide details on the types of weapons to be used in the attack, nor on the precise stage of planning at this time. It is not known whether the White House has already consulted with allies about the air strike, or if it plans to do so.

Sense in the senate
Details provided by the administration raised alarm bells on Capitol Hill, the source said. After receiving secret briefings on the planned air strike, Senator Diane Feinstein, Democrat of California, and Senator Richard Lugar, Republican of Indiana, said they would write a New York Times op-ed piece "within days", the source said last week, to express their opposition. Feinstein is a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee and Lugar is the ranking Republican on the Foreign Relations Committee.

Senate offices were closed for the US Memorial Day holiday, so Feinstein and Lugar were not available for comment.

Given their obligations to uphold the secrecy of classified information, it is unlikely the senators would reveal the Bush administration's plan or their knowledge of it. However, going public on the issue, even without specifics, would likely create a public groundswell of criticism that could induce the Bush administration reconsider its plan.

The proposed air strike on Iran would have huge implications for geopolitics and for the ongoing US presidential campaign. The biggest question, of course, is how would Iran respond?

Iran's options
Iran could flex its muscles in any number of ways. It could step up support for insurgents in Iraq and for its allies throughout the Middle East. Iran aids both Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Israel's Occupied Territories. It is also widely suspected of assisting Taliban rebels in Afghanistan.

Iran could also choose direct confrontation with the US in Iraq and/or Afghanistan, with which Iran shares a long, porous border. Iran has a fighting force of more than 500,000. Iran is also believed to have missiles capable of reaching US allies in the Gulf region.

Iran could also declare a complete or selective oil embargo on US allies. Iran is the second-largest oil exporter in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and fourth-largest overall. About 70% of its oil exports go to Asia. The US has barred oil imports from Iran since 1995 and restricts US companies from investing there.

China is Iran's biggest customer for oil, and Iran buys weapons from China. Trade between the two countries hit US$20 billion last year and continues to expand. China's reaction to an attack on Iran is also a troubling unknown for the US.

Three for the money
The Islamic world could also react strongly against a US attack against a third predominantly Muslim nation. Pakistan, which also shares a border with Iran, could face additional pressure from Islamic parties to end its cooperation with the US to fight al-Qaeda and hunt for Osama bin Laden. Turkey, another key ally, could be pushed further off its secular base. American companies, diplomatic installations and other US interests could face retaliation from governments or mobs in Muslim-majority states from Indonesia to Morocco.

A US air strike on Iran would have seismic impact on the presidential race at home, but it's difficult to determine where the pieces would fall.

At first glance, a military attack against Iran would seem to favor McCain. The Arizona senator says the US is locked in battle across the globe with radical Islamic extremists, and he believes Iran is one of biggest instigators and supporters of the extremist tide. A strike on Iran could rally American voters to back the war effort and vote for McCain.

On the other hand, an air strike on Iran could heighten public disenchantment with Bush administration policy in the Middle East, leading to support for the Democratic candidate, whoever it is.

But an air strike will provoke reactions far beyond US voting booths. That would explain why two veteran senators, one Republican and one Democrat, were reportedly so horrified at the prospect.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/JE28Ak01.html

Not sure how good of a source the Asia Times is, but I really hope this isn't true.

Cowboysguy2000	Posted: May 28 2008, 01:07 AM
Assistant to the Regional Manager Group: Members Posts: 6,501 Member No.: 71 Joined: 31-January 06	Jesus Christ, if this is true it's really unbelievable. The scariest part by far is not knowing how China would react along with many Arab nations. Is Bush trying to start WWIII or something, cause if China gets involved it sure would be. But also, our military is spread thin as it is. We have soldiers in Iraq, Afghanistan, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Korea, Japan, and here (and probably other places I forgot). How are we supposed to fight Iran (and anyone else who joins in) too? And if we bomb Iran and the shit hits the fan, whose to say our "allies" will help us out? I'm sure the UK would help, but who else? Some 3rd world nation might send some monkeys to clear mine fields, but it's gonna take more than that to take on China. And then we have the damn right-wing Christian fundamentalists in our country who seem to think this is a freaking holy war and that Barack Obama is a Muslim terrorist in disguise. These same people just assume we have this invincible military and that we could crush the rest of the world if we wanted to without any repercussions back home. What's scary is that more of these people exist than you'd think! I mean, ~28% of people STILL approve of Bush, I don't know how even that is possible... Dammit, I'm getting close to agreeing with the people who want to impeach Bush, but if that happened we'd be even more screwed with Cheney coming behind him. Damn, if we can just ride out the next 6 or 7 months without getting into much more shit, and also elect a competent president whose not going to get us into WWIII, we might just make it another few years or so.

True Grit

Posted: May 28 2008, 02:26 PM

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QUOTE (Cowboysguy2000 @ May 28 2008, 03:07 AM)

But also, our military is spread thin as it is. We have soldiers in Iraq, Afghanistan, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Korea, Japan, and here (and probably other places I forgot). How are we supposed to fight Iran (and anyone else who joins in) too?

It doesnt say we would be deploying troops. It says air strikes.

But we would obviously have to have a draft if we deployed troops. We are probably going to have with the next 5 years or so anyways. Which sucks, because I will probably be selected. I guess I could just join the Navy or Air Force before getting drafted to the Army or Marines.

And I really dont think we will start shit with China. The only way we could beat them is with Nukes. They have more soldiers in their Military than the entire population of the US.

And about the troops in Germany, Japan, and Korea. They are not in combat so we could deploy them to a war zone. Not all of them of course. And we will have troops in Iraq for a very long time. Just like Germany.

STLCardinals	Posted: May 29 2008, 02:40 AM
u mad? Group: Members Posts: 6,587 Member No.: 594 Joined: 23-December 06	Yeah, and I'd be elgible for the draft by that time also. Happy 18th Birthday thumbsup :rolleyes: :angry:

Statalyzer	Posted: May 29 2008, 09:19 AM
The D-Element Group: Admin Posts: 10,061 Member No.: 14 Joined: 25-January 06	US vs China would be unwinnable and is not going to happen. The chances of draft happening are pretty small also.

Astro	Posted: Jun 3 2008, 10:37 PM
O RLY? Group: Members Posts: 5,245 Member No.: 310 Joined: 6-April 06	If we attack Iran you can kiss your life as you know it good bye

Raider	Posted: Jun 4 2008, 08:23 AM
Chief Slapaho Group: Admin Posts: 7,373 Member No.: 8 Joined: 25-January 06	What's a few billion more dollars in govt. spending? The US has good credit, we'll just borrow some cash.

TheGuru	Posted: Jun 4 2008, 09:57 AM
The Boss Group: Admin Posts: 2,828 Member No.: 1 Joined: 25-January 06	I highly doubt there will actually be airstrikes. Neither government is going to disregard this "leak" of planned airstrikes. I'd fully expect Iran to move stuff to be safe and the US to not actually be targeting those areas anyways. Guys like Cowboysguys, etc. can rip Bush all you want but last I checked we havent had another terrorist attack on us since Sept 11. I sure hope Obama can act as smart as he talks.

STLCardinals

Posted: Jun 4 2008, 02:05 PM

u mad?

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QUOTE (TheGuru @ Jun 4 2008, 10:57 AM)

I sure hope Obama can act as smart as he talks.

Well he thinks there's 58 states, so we would be in some bad shape.

motown.champion	Posted: Jun 4 2008, 03:39 PM
All Star Group: Members Posts: 1,666 Member No.: 588 Joined: 4-December 06	So why did u guys vote bush in, 2 times in a row? Al gore in 2000 was by far the better candidate, u know why? BUSH CANT GET ANY WORSE. Him Andrew Johnson and Hoover are the worst presidents i ever seen. Weapons of mass destruction in iraq? WHERE? Whats it going be in iran? New Oil Findings? O ye after gas goes to $10 that will be helpful.

Statalyzer	Posted: Jun 4 2008, 04:31 PM
The D-Element Group: Admin Posts: 10,061 Member No.: 14 Joined: 25-January 06	For all you can say about Bush, saying that he caused the current high gas prices is not one of them.

STLCardinals

Posted: Jun 5 2008, 04:01 AM

u mad?

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QUOTE (motown.champion @ Jun 4 2008, 04:39 PM)

So why did u guys vote bush in, 2 times in a row? Al gore in 2000 was by far the better candidate, u know why? BUSH CANT GET ANY WORSE. Him Andrew Johnson and Hoover are the worst presidents i ever seen. Weapons of mass destruction in iraq? WHERE? Whats it going be in iran? New Oil Findings? O ye after gas goes to $10 that will be helpful.

IMO Jimmy Carter was our worst president.

motown.champion

Posted: Jun 5 2008, 08:40 AM

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QUOTE (Statalyzer @ Jun 4 2008, 04:31 PM)

For all you can say about Bush, saying that he caused the current high gas prices is not one of them.

well did he try to help it? Not at all. Did he like high gas prices? YEs when he gets money from them.....

DStahzz99

Posted: Jun 5 2008, 09:15 AM

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QUOTE (motown.champion @ Jun 5 2008, 07:40 AM)

QUOTE (Statalyzer @ Jun 4 2008, 04:31 PM)

For all you can say about Bush, saying that he caused the current high gas prices is not one of them.

well did he try to help it? Not at all. Did he like high gas prices? YEs when he gets money from them.....

I think you're wearing your tinfoil hat a little too tightly.

Statalyzer

Posted: Jun 5 2008, 09:34 AM

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QUOTE (motown.champion @ Jun 5 2008, 08:40 AM)

well did he try to help it? Not at all.

Um, actually, he did, and Congress opposed it.

QUOTE

IMO Jimmy Carter was our worst president.

I know he's a bit obscure, but it's almost gotta be Warren Harding. Carter and Andrew Johnson were well-intentioned but were kind of the right guys but in the wrong job. Harding was pure politics over principles, as well as just plain corrupt.

Astro

Posted: Jun 5 2008, 09:50 AM

O RLY?

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QUOTE (motown.champion @ Jun 4 2008, 04:39 PM)

How do you know Gore was a much better candidate.. you were 10

motown.champion

Posted: Jun 5 2008, 10:12 AM

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QUOTE (Statalyzer @ Jun 5 2008, 09:34 AM)

QUOTE (motown.champion @ Jun 5 2008, 08:40 AM)

well did he try to help it? Not at all.

Um, actually, he did, and Congress opposed it.

QUOTE

IMO Jimmy Carter was our worst president.

andrew johnson the right guy to be impeached too?

motown.champion

Posted: Jun 5 2008, 10:13 AM

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QUOTE (Astro @ Jun 5 2008, 09:50 AM)

QUOTE (motown.champion @ Jun 4 2008, 04:39 PM)

How do you know Gore was a much better candidate.. you were 10

because bush cant get any worse?

motown.champion

Posted: Jun 5 2008, 10:16 AM

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QUOTE (DStahzz99 @ Jun 5 2008, 09:15 AM)

QUOTE (motown.champion @ Jun 5 2008, 07:40 AM)

QUOTE (Statalyzer @ Jun 4 2008, 04:31 PM)

For all you can say about Bush, saying that he caused the current high gas prices is not one of them.

well did he try to help it? Not at all. Did he like high gas prices? YEs when he gets money from them.....

I think you're wearing your tinfoil hat a little too tightly.

yup just keep voting Republician. They obviously help this world by making the rich richer. Even tho obama has all these bad nicknames and is indeed african american, mccain would ruin us more in terms of politics. Now Racism could become out of control with obama, but if he gets shot, mccain has his back. The Democrats tend to try and help the poorer folk, and its time for them to get a chance back in office. Dont pay attention to what the candidates say, they never folllow their words anyways. Its a bunch of BS to have you elect Them.

DStahzz99

Posted: Jun 5 2008, 10:21 AM

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QUOTE (motown.champion @ Jun 5 2008, 09:16 AM)

QUOTE (DStahzz99 @ Jun 5 2008, 09:15 AM)

QUOTE (motown.champion @ Jun 5 2008, 07:40 AM)

QUOTE (Statalyzer @ Jun 4 2008, 04:31 PM)

For all you can say about Bush, saying that he caused the current high gas prices is not one of them.

well did he try to help it? Not at all. Did he like high gas prices? YEs when he gets money from them.....

I think you're wearing your tinfoil hat a little too tightly.

This has nothing to do with Dem vs Repub. You were going off on a conspiracy theory so I told you your tinfoil hat is too tight, not because I love Bush or something.

And if you believe Dems help the poor I'm sorry but you are one gullible SOB. Giving away taxpayer money to non-working poor people doesn't help the poor at all.

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