Scott Kazmir traded to Angels

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AiDU...ov=ap&type=lgns

Kind of an odd trade IMO being that the Rays are still very much in the race at only 4.5 games back and in 3rd place for the Wild Card bid. Why trade one of your better pitchers (though he IS having a down year) for prospects in that situation? ESPECIALLY when the next series for the Rays is a home series against the very team that has the honor of being first in the Wild Card.

Quite a horriawful (to quote Shaq) on the Rays part.

I don't know much about the prospects they got back, but Kazmir is an injury prone pitcher with a high BB rate whose salary was about to shoot up next year. He is OK, but he isn't worth 22 million over the next 2 years. Not surprising at all a cost conscious team like the Rays with a gaggle of arms in the minors would deal him. The chance at making the playoffs are pretty low at this point, so if they can re position that money elsewhere to possibly upgrade their catcher or bullpen in the offseason, it's a smart move.

I wouldn't say their chances of making it were slim. 4.5 games out with a chance to host Boston next week in a series. If they lose that series, their hopes become slim... but sweep the BoSox and they're RIGHT back in the race.

PECOTA has them at a 17 percent chance to make the playoffs. Coolstandings has the Rays with a 12 percent chance. Even if they play well against the Sox, they still have the Rangers to contend with. They have a shot I guess, but it still isn't very likely.

Eh, 12-17% chances are still quite significant. The point is that they're still well in the race. No, I don't think they make it and I don't think Kazmir would have been the difference. But why dump good players for prospects when you are still significantly in the hunt. Yes, his salary would have been higher next year. That doesn't mean you need to go dumping players for prospects when chances fall lower than probable for making the playoffs.

The upcoming Red Sox series is probably going to tell the tale though. Could this move have at least waited a few more days to see what would happen there?

Yes, I view this as as a silly move... though the Rays are among the worst markets in baseball so it's not like they really have the ability to be competitive for long at a time. They'll be in the AL East basement in 2010 IMO. At best, they'll be 4th in the toughest division in baseball.

It couldn't since Kazmir has to be on the Angels' roster by August 31st to be eligible for postseason.

That's quite a strong statement seeing the Rays will still have the young nucleus of a WS team back next year. I know you're an Orioles fan and you have every right to be excited for their future, but I still like the Rays to contend in 2010.

For one, I was unaware of the August 31 rule.. obviously. Kind of dumb, but OK.

As for next year, they will be losing quite a few players due to the fact that they simply have NO money as an organization to pay players. I mean seriously. Even with the Aug 31 rule in place, I still firmly believe that you DO NOT DUMP PLAYERS FOR PROSPECTS when you are still in decent contention. Sure a 12-17% chance isn't exactly great odds, but it's much better than a slim shot too.

Cheap moves like this, in all honesty, are indicative of teams that don't have the money in the long run to contend for long. Who's to say they will be able to afford to pick up Crawford and Pena next year? Perhaps they will have to part ways with them sometime next year if still on the verge on contending because they could get expensive in 2011 and 2012.

The Rays had their nice run. The Rays were a great story in 2008. They were still pretty solid in 2009. But if they can't sign their players in 2010, their run is over. There is NOTHING to indicate that they will or even CAN sign these guys.

This isn't a strict salary dump though. There's merit to moving Kazmir: he has been on the DL 3 times in the last 2 years, lacks command in the strike zone, and his velocity has dropped. At this point, he is their 3rd best starter. He simply isn't worth the money he is owed in the next couple years. You can debate the timing of the move, but he has more value being dealt now than trading him in the offseason. Plus if the rumors are true, and that PTBNL is Brandon Wood, the move looks that much better for the Rays IMO.

While the Rays certainly have rigid financial constraints, I still think they have a good window to contend through 2011. However, you are right that they won't be able to keep both those guys. Carl Crawford has a 10 million option for next year, and the Rays system is deep with outfielders. CC's production had been declining the previous 2 years, but he has rebounded this year so trading him would be another tough sell to their fanbase. Still, I wouldn't be shocked to see Crawford moved sometime by next year's deadline.

I am surprised that Texas did not try to stop this trade by claiming on waivers.

I would say the Angels are now the favorite to win it all.