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Title: Possible Outcomes of the Third Great War


Kiarou - March 29, 2007 05:34 AM (GMT)
Introduction
Of all the Great Wars it is arguable that the Third is the most important, it is obviously larger then any of the previous Great Wars, not simply because Cybernations has expanded in size from the last two, but simply by the sheer number of alliances involved on both sides. It is also arguable that the First Great War was the most important as it was the event that started the entire chain of events that led us here. The only reason that this war may be considered the most important is that it may provide a definitave outcome to the tensions that existed in the Post-Great War world. Why the number of alliances is important, and why it supercedes in ranking importance the amount of nations or their total nation strength, is because it draws the lines with near finality. The number of major or minor alliances not participating in this war is small, and those that aren't are famed for either neutrality or independence. Therefore the sides have been drawn, the participants gathered and the stage laid out for the most decisive war in the history of Cybernations.

Aegis Total Victory
This section assumes that the coalition of alliances that have chosen to take the moniker Aegis achieve total victory over the Initiative forces. For Aegis this kind of victory is a prolonged war over several weeks to several months where they defeat the combined power of the Initiative and reduce their ability to wage war to the point where any combat is soley at lower ranks which high ranking Aegis countries can support the lower ranked fighters. This is total victory, the enemy has been wholly defeated and it is likely that they are bleeding members though either alliances choose to stay, or are not allowed to leave. They are essentially defeated and unilateral peace may be declared or harsh peace terms imposed as military resistance is futile. This may lead to the break up of the Initiative, though based on the strength of current bonds and the comraderie current displayed it is likely that the Initiative will be mostly whole even in the case of total victory for the Aegis.

Aegis total victory would result in a very different Cybernations, most if not all of the Initiative alliances would no longer be considered major alliances, many would loose their masks with likely only the New Pacific Order retaining a mask. As total victory requires that all military resistance be essentially quelled it would be months to over a year before the whole of the Initiative could hope oppose even just the major alliances in Aegis. Due to the temporary nature of Aegis, like the CoaLUEtion of the First Great War, it is likely after an Aegis total victory the participant alliances would go their own ways, as they are unneeded as a single entity whose purpose was to militarily defeat the Initiative. Essentially the political landscape of Cybernations would return to how it was previous to the Great War with one of the Aegis alliances taking over the place held by the New Pacific Order. However total victory for Aegis is unlikely as the required dedication and military commitment over such a long time span for a group whose purpose was to counter is difficult to do, and costly in strength, time and attention span especially to alliances that are more interested in neutralizing the threat rather then complete annhilation of the enemy.

Initiative Total Victory
Due to the more military oriented nature of the Initiative the possibility of maintaining interest and commitment to a war long enough to achieve total victory is higher, but still unlikely. Total victory for the Initiative would have the same qualifiers as that of total victory for the Aegis, the continued destruction of all enemy alliances until their ability to pose a threat to the Initiative collectively is reduced to near zero for months if not over a year after the end of the war. Peace may be unilaterally declared or harsh terms imposed as the alliances have no real choice but to accept as the terms cannot possibly be as harsh as remaining at war. The same long and difficult process that the Aegis would have to undertake would be required for Initiative total victory.

The world after an Initiative total victory would be vastly different then the Cybernations had ever been before, a single unified bloc would hold the most unopposed power that has ever been seen in Cybernations. Minor wars may crop up, but nothing major is likely to occur for several months. At this point the former, or should the organization survive such a complete defeat and time, current Aegis members will have recovered enough strength to pose a threat and new major alliance will have time to join the game and potentially join the Aegis. However it is unlikely that a "neutral massacre" would happen, all alliances that the Initiative or the New Pacific Order has ever fought has, among other things, been politically opposed to either the Initiative or the New Pacific Order. Mostly the neutrals would continue unmolested in their path assuming they didn't fall into the same mindset the current Aegis displays.

Aegis Partial Victory
A partial victory requires that some or most of the alliances within the opposing side leave that side and gain peace, while a few remaining alliances are pummeled in a similar manner to that found in total victory. This would mean that the Initiative had broken up, several alliances leaving and be given peace. It is likely that should the Aegis win a partial victory they would chose to stay at war with the New Pacific Order, the New Polar Order and the Goon Order Of Neutral Shoving and potentially the Federation of Armed Nations. While not as effective as a total victory it does accomplish breaking up the Initiative as well as putting a large part of their strength out of the fight. While it significantly reduces the rebuild time for the Initiative and allows for more cohesion in rebuilding by the former Initiative members (assuming that they left the war on good terms with the alliances still at war) it still means that the Initiative will have a long road to recovery but makes recovery faster and solidifies the ties between the alliances that were warring and the ones that left earlier.

Initiative Partial Victory
Due to the more fragile nature of Aegis, and that several alliances have already left (though no major alliances) a partial victory for the Initiative is more likely then Aegis', for this I will cite also the League which Aegis resembles far more then the Initiative. A partial victory would likely see the destruction of GATO, the Legion, NAAC, LUE and possibly /b/. Whether or not the Aegis survives this, or if the Aegis members help the significantly reduced alliances, is more in doubt then should Aegis achieve a partial victory. If the four alliances listed above do not receive aid then the road to recovery will be especially long, another major note is that the Initiative started with more high level and especially high population level nation and recovery is significantly easier when backed by a large number of improvements. Thus, should an Initiative partial victory come to pass it will be a signficant period of time before any of the aforementioned alliance reach their previous strength.

Aegis Favored Draw
Essentially a mutually agreed upon peace will be declared however the Aegis will be in overall victory allowing them to push their terms of surrender to end war. What that will mean is unsure, if they will be able to all agree to on surrender terms is in doubt. Alliances like the ODN will favor terms that are fairly lenient, whereas GATO and LUE will favor very harsh terms which will almost certainly involve reperations from all Initiative alliances as well as copying terms taken from their own surrender from the Second Great War. Due to the varied nature of Aegis, and that the more lenient members of Aegis could always leave the war if they felt that the rest were being unreasonable, then Aegis terms will be decent to the Initiative as they would face an internal split over too harsh terms.

Initiative Favored Draw
As the Initiative doesn't need to deal with the Aegis as a whole due to it's unofficial nature alliances within Aegis may receive different surrender terms, if any at all. Alliances like /b/ and LUE, if given peace will be set under very imposing restrictions and may have to pay large quantities of reparations if they ever hope to achieve peace. Many of the smaller alliances may get away with slaps on the wrist, especially if they leave the war before most of the major participants. It seems likely that the major Aegis alliances will have certain restrictions placed on them, and will also be likely subjected to giving up a rather large amount cash to help rebuild the damage to the Initiative. Due to the more unified nature of the Initiative their terms would likely be harsher, if more selectively placed, then those offered by Aegis.

Conclusion
It seems that the favored draw would be the most likely outcome for the Aegis if they win, a favored draw would fulfill the Aegis mission requirements and not overly tax the extended war fighting capabilities of alliances who, by their mission statement, only want peace and a short end to the war. This, combined with the inherent nature of the Aegis as a loose coalition of alliances with one short term goal, is the reason why a favored draw would be the most likely Aegis victory. On the other hand an Initiative victory would likely be a partial victory, with several alliances not getting peace for a while after the war ended for many others. While not a total victory the Initiative may try and take advantage of the temporary nature of Aegis in case of victory.

Cybernations Moderation - April 6, 2007 04:28 PM (GMT)
This thread is in the Academic Sub-Forum, and responses will therefore be kept to a certain standard. If your post does not meet the requirements outlined here then it will be removed.

EuroSoviets - April 7, 2007 04:38 PM (GMT)
I wonder as to the nature of response this thread hopes to evoke, nevertheless I find it well written and engaging. Amongst all the threads in the various forums, I have seen plenty of FTW and FTL being spouted by members of each side and this post masterfully draws together the strands of suggestions made by numerous players.

Yet at the base, I disagree with the hypothetical divisions and what the terms 'total' or 'partial' victory should mean. If I understand correctly, the author is aiming at a Thucydides-like form of analysis; divorcing what combatants might view as 'total' or 'partial' victories from what might objectively be seen as such. While admirable, several misapprehensions are evident; I shall herein lay these out and then return my own conclusion, partisan though it may (or may not?) seem.

On Unilateral Peace and 'Total Victory'
As the previous author recognizes, any alliance pursued by the Initiative to this end would haemorrhage members. I would go so far to say that after a while, it would dissolve almost completely, divesting itself of the outer shell of regular but politically inactive members and ultimately winding up as a ZI'ed core of inner members. Had Farkistan not been able to tap on the resources of their non-CN forum, this is precisely what would have happened to them. Even with extra members pouring in, they still weren't able to do much against the alliances arrayed against them.

Something similar could have quite easily happened to, for example, LUE. Whilst constant warfare drains the sympathy of the neutral and independent spheres and increases the chance of an alliance going nuclear out of desperation, it is not beyond the realms of possibility. In fact as recent events have shown us, LUE has formally disbanded rather than reach this point. Once the central alliance structure breaks up, the members are free to go their various ways and there is no way to impose war reparations upon them except individually - which is, I hope, what will happen.

I think that this, quite clearly, qualifies as a total victory. Many nations will leave, LUE is gone and the benefit other alliances may receive may be minimal since the combatants will be in hock to those against whom they waged war. If this is not how events pan out, it is not because it is impossible; it is rather because the combatants on both sides prefer a diplomatic solution that clearly represents a total triumph - such as the ODN surrender we've just witnessed. A phenomenal amount of money is now owed to FAN and the other Initiative members. If paid, it increases drastically the ability of the Initiative to resist any attempts to upset the peace. It qualifies in my view as a total victory therefore. A 'unilateral' peace is not a prerequisite thereof.

I posit to you rather than requiring, under the term 'Total Victory' the complete annihilation of each alliance that a total victory simply means the inability of any alliance to challenge, unaided, the power of its erstwhile opponent. Your total victory and partial victory are distinguishable mainly by the disappearance of the enemy in question in the one case and the inability of an alliance to challenge its former enemy for a period of time in the other. Yet there are alliances in this game that will never challenge the higher powers without serious allies; you have not considered that an alliance can continue to exist while never ever reaching its former power. I think that qualifies as a total victory.

On the Constituent Parts of Aegis
Very correctly you recognized the fragmentary nature of Aegis; you also recognize that some alliances may be pursued for longer than others. Depending on how that turns out, it may represent a total victory over all. If the situation I describe as total victory in my previous paragraph is achieved over The Legion, I think that the settlement overall, given the negotiated surrenders of the ODN and so on and the disbanding of several Aegis alliances, will represent a total victory. Aegis as it stands will never again challenge the Initiative. No one will be ignorant of how the 'top alliances' stat sheet will look then, particularly if the Legion is pursued to the point of de-masking.

On Nation Strength
That said, there is another part of this discussion which I feel should be addressed. There has been an awful amount of fuss made about the collapse, in NS terms, of The Legion. I don't think that means too much, and I genuinely agree with the conclusions of the above author in his summation of the most likely Initiative victory. I don't reasonably think there can be an Aegis victory or even a 'favoured draw,' to borrow terminology. That's nothing to do with my own allegiances and everything to do with my experiences out on the battlefield. The Aegis alliances have gained middling successes in the lower strength ranges, but that will not last now that the middle strength range battles have been so decisively won by the Initiative.

Nation Strength looks lower than it should because plenty of Aegis alliance members have zero soldiers and zero tanks and zero aircraft; as soon as peace returns they will take a bump. If the Legion keeps its numbers up, the bump will be a sharp one - perhaps half a million Nation Strength for them. I think they will keep their mask and reach a negotiated surrender - or they will haemorrhage members for a few more weeks and then surrender. The ultimate point of my discourse is that total victory can be achieved than other ways than is immediately clear from the original post and that such a point is not terribly far away for the Initiative.

Air Me - April 22, 2007 01:35 AM (GMT)
Furries suck

Marvin the Paranoid Android - April 23, 2007 07:28 PM (GMT)
QUOTE (Air Me @ Apr 21 2007, 09:35 PM)
Furries suck

This does not belong in the academic sub-forum, or in fact anywhere on this forum. User warned.

goalmaster - August 24, 2007 01:08 AM (GMT)
i dont think there will b another great war i think people will stay out of it. the small alliances will come out fine but the majors would have alot of trouble at the top.




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